Tigrinho Tale - Craft Anklets

[WHATISAMAN? 52]

I was trying to make a craft on my ankle bracelet and I failed 4 times in a row, I used the odds and found it very strange.
Does anyone else have this strange feeling?

First time: Failed with 90% chance of success

Second time: Failed with 92% chance of success

Third attempt: Failed attempt again with 90%

Fourth attempt: Failed again on first upgrade with 92% success

 

 

I decided to go to chatgpt and provide all the information and see the probability of this happening with the % shown on NPC Shalon.

 

I feel like if I do it for the 5th time it

 

will break again and I won't report it as a bug because it won't even be analyzed.

I feel like if I do it for the 5th time it will break again and I won't report it as a bug because it won't even be analyzed.

Has something like this happened to you?

Maybe bug? @Overlady @Senpai

 

 

Edited March 11 by WHATISAMAN?

[xkintaro 2,160]

You were lucky enough to have bad luck in the game, congratulations!

 

It was very, very bad luck, as you yourself prova on topic.

[WHATISAMAN? 52]

I tried again today and failed again

Welcome to wartale

5x time fail 90% sucess chance

 I made 16 sacred stars with a 70% chance of success (just one fail), when I went to make the anklets it broke.

Will I have to break anklets 15 times in a row until I reach an impossible number?

If each event is independent, we need to calculate the chance of failure for each upgrade individually and then combine those probabilities.

Since you want the chance of failing 5 times in a row, and each upgrade has a different failure probability (based on their success probabilities), the chance of failing 5 times in a row would be the product of the failure probability for each attempt, repeated 5 times.

So we have:

• Failure probability for the first upgrade: 1−0.92=0.081 - 0.92 = 0.08
• Failure probability for the second upgrade: 1−0.90=0.101 - 0.90 = 0.10
• Failure probability for the third upgrade: 1−0.88=0.121 - 0.88 = 0.12

Now, to fail 5 times in a row, we multiply the failure probabilities of each upgrade. That is:

P(fail 5 times in a row)=(0.08)×(0.10)×(0.12)×(0.08)×(0.10)P(\text{fail 5 times in a row}) = (0.08) \times (0.10) \times (0.12) \times (0.08) \times (0.10)

Calculating the value:

P(fail 5 times in a row)=0.08×0.10×0.12×0.08×0.10=0.0000384P(\text{fail 5 times in a row}) = 0.08 \times 0.10 \times 0.12 \times 0.08 \times 0.10 = 0.0000384

Therefore, the chance of breaking the item 5 times in a row is 0.00384%

[HollyShot 1,032]

-1 you are just unluck

deserved btw 

[cyrc 55]

0.1% in wartale means 50/50 

[FluppyGM 137]

I must agree with you, this is cursed somehow. I broke a lot of things with 90%+ chances of success. It follows the same standard we use with hospital clients who have cancer, we tell them that the survival chances are 90% after chemo and radiation, and they all die anyway. This is not the era/generation of depression for no reason...

 

[infinite[VOID] 103]

19 hours ago, WHATISAMAN? said:

I tried again today and failed again

Welcome to wartale

5x time fail 90% sucess chance

 I made 16 sacred stars with a 70% chance of success (just one fail), when I went to make the anklets it broke.

Will I have to break anklets 15 times in a row until I reach an impossible number?

If each event is independent, we need to calculate the chance of failure for each upgrade individually and then combine those probabilities.

Since you want the chance of failing 5 times in a row, and each upgrade has a different failure probability (based on their success probabilities), the chance of failing 5 times in a row would be the product of the failure probability for each attempt, repeated 5 times.

So we have:

• Failure probability for the first upgrade: 1−0.92=0.081 - 0.92 = 0.08
• Failure probability for the second upgrade: 1−0.90=0.101 - 0.90 = 0.10
• Failure probability for the third upgrade: 1−0.88=0.121 - 0.88 = 0.12

Now, to fail 5 times in a row, we multiply the failure probabilities of each upgrade. That is:

P(fail 5 times in a row)=(0.08)×(0.10)×(0.12)×(0.08)×(0.10)P(\text{fail 5 times in a row}) = (0.08) \times (0.10) \times (0.12) \times (0.08) \times (0.10)

Calculating the value:

P(fail 5 times in a row)=0.08×0.10×0.12×0.08×0.10=0.0000384P(\text{fail 5 times in a row}) = 0.08 \times 0.10 \times 0.12 \times 0.08 \times 0.10 = 0.0000384

Therefore, the chance of breaking the item 5 times in a row is 0.00384%

Is it on the same character those failure attempts?

[WHATISAMAN? 52]

1 minute ago, infinite[VOID] said:

Is it on the same character those failure attempts?

yep

[mastellini 549]

same feeling for roulette...

[thisisrauldo 831]

S> Luck

[ace1 283]

 

On 3/11/2025 at 3:53 PM, WHATISAMAN? said:

Therefore, the chance of breaking the item 5 times in a row is 0.00384%

 

nope, the correct number is 0,00000768. it's 1 in 13+million  500 times lower chances than 0.00384%.

 

Getting struck by lightning twice in your lifetime = (~1 in 9 million).

Being attacked and killed by a shark = (~1 in 11.5 million).

crying from an asteroid impact = (~1 in 12 million per year).

crying in a plane crash as a passenger = (~1 in 11 million per flight).

 

i seriously recommend you avoid airplanes, thurderstorms and sharks. And asteroids too.

[fuckingloveyou 175]

Update: This is the fifth time I've tried, 3 times I failed the first time, this % that appears isn't the first one right.

Edited August 8 by fuckingloveyou

[PIRADINHO 115]

20 minutes ago, ****ingloveyou said:

Update: This is the fifth time I've tried, 3 times I failed the first time, this % that appears isn't the first one right.

hahahahahaha

[CaneladeVelho 11]

you are lucky in the bad luck of that madness man, better luck next time 

[Li0nKingJr 49]

How good it is to remember this post

[YARDBR 197]

31 minutes ago, Li0nKingJr said:

How good it is to remember this post

Tadeu's mechanic

 

 

 

 

 

tire shop

 

 

 

 

 

[Li0nKingJr 49]

4 hours ago, YARDBR said:

Tadeu's mechanic

 

 

 

 

 

tire shop

 

 

 

 

 

?

[Overlady 5,337]

Hey There!

Since this topic was revived, I decided to show you guys an internal RNG test. All items within the crafting system share the same RNG structure, so I created a new recipe just for the test.

This recipe has a 50% success rate, so I ran 4 batches of 100 Swift Carrots. Within a realistic range, the chance of getting a result between 40–60 carrots is 95%, so let’s move on to the tests:

 1st test: 54 carrots

 2nd test: 46 carrots

 3rd test: 49 carrots

 4th test: 56 carrots

I could run more tests, but it wouldn’t make any difference because the results are correct within the margin of the interval.

 

Best,

Overlady

 

[xkintaro 2,160]

6 minutes ago, Overlady said:

Hey There!

Since this topic was revived, I decided to show you guys an internal RNG test. All items within the crafting system share the same RNG structure, so I created a new recipe just for the test.

This recipe has a 50% success rate, so I ran 4 batches of 100 Swift Carrots. Within a realistic range, the chance of getting a result between 40–60 carrots is 95%, so let’s move on to the tests:

 1st test: 54 carrots

 2nd test: 46 carrots

 3rd test: 49 carrots

 4th test: 56 carrots

I could run more tests, but it wouldn’t make any difference because the results are correct within the margin of the interval.

 

Best,

Overlady

 

 

The problem could just be the crafting of the anklets on the live server, can you test this same recipe on the live server?

 

They've said a lot that this recipe is breaking a lot.

[Overlady 5,337]

1 minute ago, xkintaro said:

 

The problem could just be the crafting of the anklets on the live server, can you test this same recipe on the live server?

 

They've said a lot that this recipe is breaking a lot.

Yes, I can. But I would say that theoretically it would be impossible for a single recipe to be bugged, since they all operate within the same structure. So, which anklet should be checked?

 

Best,

Overlady

[xkintaro 2,160]

1 minute ago, Overlady said:

Yes, I can. But I would say that theoretically it would be impossible for a single recipe to be bugged, since they all operate within the same structure. So, which anklet should be checked?

 

Best,

Overlady

 

Last one, Feral Anklets.

[Overlady 5,337]

19 minutes ago, xkintaro said:

 

Last one, Feral Anklets.

I ran a small test with 10 Feral Anklets, and the craft result was successful in all 10 attempts.

 

Best,

overlady

[ik3r 980]

7 hours ago, Overlady said:

I ran a small test with 10 Feral Anklets, and the craft result was successful in all 10 attempts.

 

Best,

overlady

 

you got all luck of that craft, now next 50 attempts from players will fail xD

[TadsK 176]

9 hours ago, Overlady said:

I ran a small test with 10 Feral Anklets, and the craft result was successful in all 10 attempts.

 

Best,

overlady

Developer’s luck

 

btw, thanks for replying to the post and taking the time to test and explain to players. 
 

one less conspiracy theory alive in the game haha

[xkintaro 2,160]

1 hour ago, TadsK said:

one less conspiracy theory alive in the game haha

 

the next conspiracy break, I suggest winning a rolls against the soconoolho