Tigrinho Tale - Craft Anklets

[WHATISAMAN? 41]

I was trying to make a craft on my ankle bracelet and I failed 4 times in a row, I used the odds and found it very strange.
Does anyone else have this strange feeling?

First time: Failed with 90% chance of success

Second time: Failed with 92% chance of success

Third attempt: Failed attempt again with 90%

Fourth attempt: Failed again on first upgrade with 92% success

 

 

I decided to go to chatgpt and provide all the information and see the probability of this happening with the % shown on NPC Shalon.

 

I feel like if I do it for the 5th time it

 

will break again and I won't report it as a bug because it won't even be analyzed.

I feel like if I do it for the 5th time it will break again and I won't report it as a bug because it won't even be analyzed.

Has something like this happened to you?

Maybe bug? @Overlady @Senpai

 

 

Edited March 11 by WHATISAMAN?

[xkintaro 1,823]

You were lucky enough to have bad luck in the game, congratulations!

 

It was very, very bad luck, as you yourself prova on topic.

[WHATISAMAN? 41]

I tried again today and failed again

Welcome to wartale

5x time fail 90% sucess chance

 I made 16 sacred stars with a 70% chance of success (just one fail), when I went to make the anklets it broke.

Will I have to break anklets 15 times in a row until I reach an impossible number?

If each event is independent, we need to calculate the chance of failure for each upgrade individually and then combine those probabilities.

Since you want the chance of failing 5 times in a row, and each upgrade has a different failure probability (based on their success probabilities), the chance of failing 5 times in a row would be the product of the failure probability for each attempt, repeated 5 times.

So we have:

• Failure probability for the first upgrade: 1−0.92=0.081 - 0.92 = 0.08
• Failure probability for the second upgrade: 1−0.90=0.101 - 0.90 = 0.10
• Failure probability for the third upgrade: 1−0.88=0.121 - 0.88 = 0.12

Now, to fail 5 times in a row, we multiply the failure probabilities of each upgrade. That is:

P(fail 5 times in a row)=(0.08)×(0.10)×(0.12)×(0.08)×(0.10)P(\text{fail 5 times in a row}) = (0.08) \times (0.10) \times (0.12) \times (0.08) \times (0.10)

Calculating the value:

P(fail 5 times in a row)=0.08×0.10×0.12×0.08×0.10=0.0000384P(\text{fail 5 times in a row}) = 0.08 \times 0.10 \times 0.12 \times 0.08 \times 0.10 = 0.0000384

Therefore, the chance of breaking the item 5 times in a row is 0.00384%

[HollyShot 1,003]

-1 you are just unluck

deserved btw 

[cyrc 30]

0.1% in wartale means 50/50 

[FluppyGM 129]

I must agree with you, this is cursed somehow. I broke a lot of things with 90%+ chances of success. It follows the same standard we use with hospital clients who have cancer, we tell them that the survival chances are 90% after chemo and radiation, and they all die anyway. This is not the era/generation of depression for no reason...

 🤗

[infinite[VOID] 76]

19 hours ago, WHATISAMAN? said:

I tried again today and failed again

Welcome to wartale

5x time fail 90% sucess chance

 I made 16 sacred stars with a 70% chance of success (just one fail), when I went to make the anklets it broke.

Will I have to break anklets 15 times in a row until I reach an impossible number?

If each event is independent, we need to calculate the chance of failure for each upgrade individually and then combine those probabilities.

Since you want the chance of failing 5 times in a row, and each upgrade has a different failure probability (based on their success probabilities), the chance of failing 5 times in a row would be the product of the failure probability for each attempt, repeated 5 times.

So we have:

• Failure probability for the first upgrade: 1−0.92=0.081 - 0.92 = 0.08
• Failure probability for the second upgrade: 1−0.90=0.101 - 0.90 = 0.10
• Failure probability for the third upgrade: 1−0.88=0.121 - 0.88 = 0.12

Now, to fail 5 times in a row, we multiply the failure probabilities of each upgrade. That is:

P(fail 5 times in a row)=(0.08)×(0.10)×(0.12)×(0.08)×(0.10)P(\text{fail 5 times in a row}) = (0.08) \times (0.10) \times (0.12) \times (0.08) \times (0.10)

Calculating the value:

P(fail 5 times in a row)=0.08×0.10×0.12×0.08×0.10=0.0000384P(\text{fail 5 times in a row}) = 0.08 \times 0.10 \times 0.12 \times 0.08 \times 0.10 = 0.0000384

Therefore, the chance of breaking the item 5 times in a row is 0.00384%

Is it on the same character those failure attempts?

[WHATISAMAN? 41]

1 minute ago, infinite[VOID] said:

Is it on the same character those failure attempts?

yep

[mastellini 443]

same feeling for roulette...

[thisisrauldo 807]

S> Luck

[ace1 178]

 

On 3/11/2025 at 3:53 PM, WHATISAMAN? said:

Therefore, the chance of breaking the item 5 times in a row is 0.00384%

 

nope, the correct number is 0,00000768. it's 1 in 13+million 🙂 500 times lower chances than 0.00384%.

 

Getting struck by lightning twice in your lifetime = (~1 in 9 million).

Being attacked and killed by a shark = (~1 in 11.5 million).

crying from an asteroid impact = (~1 in 12 million per year).

crying in a plane crash as a passenger = (~1 in 11 million per flight).

 

i seriously recommend you avoid airplanes, thurderstorms and sharks. And asteroids too.